Description: This is the abstract for the paper, The Boomers Are Coming: A Total Cost of Care Model of the Impact of Population Aging on the Cost of Chronic and Acute Conditions in the United States. The complete paper is not available online.

Description: This paper employs a static-component projection methodology as a first step in a more complex research agenda focusing on developing detailed population projections in which mortality, disability, and disease are represented as linked phenomena with changes in any one impacting the other two. From Retirement Needs Framework, M-RS00-1.

Description: This is the abstract for the paper, The Need for Coordinated Care for Depression, and the Need for Creative Innovation by Stephen P. Melek, FSA.

Description: The adoption of FAS 158 forces sponsors of post-employment health benefit plans to consider how to manage the volatility that changes in medical care inflation create in the other postemployment benefits (OPEB) liability. By choosing carefully how the nominal discount rate used for the liability is decomposed into real rates and inflation, I illustrate that the true exposure to an OPEB plan is to the spread of medical care inflation above (or below) the overall inflation rate. The implication is that an effective immunization strategy exists that can eliminate most of the volatility in the OPEB account.

Description: Does disease management DM positively influence health care costs? According to three prestigious sources, the answer is no. From Financing Chronic Care Monograph, M-HB05-1.

Description: We ask whether we can find support for the previously reported upper limit of the force of mortality of 0.7, i.e. about the probability of tossing a fair coin.

Description: Established as part of the 1998 Utah State legislative session, the State of Utah's Children's Health Insurance Program CHIP delivers much-needed health insurance to children that are not eligible for Medicaid and who are below certain poverty levels. From Prescription Drugs Monograph, M-HB04-1.

Description: This paper examines the impact at Harvard Pilgrim Health Care of the introduction of specialty networks, shift to mail-order prescriptions, shifts to generic prescriptions, and product mix shifts to overall pharmacy trend. From Prescription Drugs Monograph, M-HB04-1.

Description: In addition to death and maturity guarantees on the mutual funds they sell, some insurance companies make it possible for the investor to extend the guarantees for a fixed number of years. In this paper, we consider the case when that option is of the European type that is, the investor, at maturity, can either close out the contract or extend it for the stated, fixed term. When extended, the guarantee is on the value of the fund at the original maturity date. The fund is assumed to be fully invested in common stock.

Description: Many risk management decisions involve the timing of implementing risk strategies. The cost of hedging, capital raising and securitization changes with the economic environment. The timing of de-risking and investment in new risk management functions affect the cost and benefit of these projects as well. Like investment timing, it is important to consider the timing in risk management decisions to maximize the gain of risk management projects. This paper discusses methods of determining the appropriate timing of implementing a risk management strategy or investing in risk management projects. It explains the human biases that may lead to inferior timing decisions. It also covers the costs and benefits of risk management projects and the impact of new information on the decision-making process. Timing considerations for financial risk hedging, insurance risk hedging and investment in new risk management projects are explained. Factors used for timing decisions include economic conditions, market volatility, credit rating, borrowing cost, capital adequacy and financial resources.